Tariff threats spark surge in PC shipments

Dive Brief:

• Global PC shipments surged during the first three months of 2025, growing 4.8% year over year as vendors stockpiled inventory ahead of expected U.S. tariffs, according to preliminary Gartner analysis published Monday. Last year’s relatively sluggish market grew just 1.3%.
• The spike was more pronounced in the U.S., which saw shipments grow 12.6% year-over-year. The U.S. accounted for more than one-quarter of the estimated 59 million units shipped in Q1, the firm said. 
• Despite growing concerns over the global economic impact of recent U.S. trade policy moves, end-users remained cautious, according to Gartner Research Principal Rishi Padhi, as uncertainty about the timing, scope and severity of tariffs cast a pall over enterprise IT spending patterns.

Dive Insight:

Tariff talk took a toll on enterprise budgets even before President Donald Trump risked triggering a global trade war on April 2 with a broad regime of import taxes that were mostly placed on pause last week. The plot thickened Friday, when the administration temporarily exempted categories of electronics, including smartphones and computer monitors, from reciprocal levies.

IT leaders had already pivoted to contingency planning based on likely tariff scenarios, protecting critical investments while trimming discretionary costs, according to IDC. After factoring in uncertainty around tariffs, the firm dialed back its 2025 IT spending growth forecast by several percentage points.

PCs and other devices bore the brunt of purchasing delays, as businesses seeking quick spending cuts targeted hardware procurements. CIOs were more protective of strategic investments in AI, analytics, security and IT optimization, Stephen Minton, IDC program VP, customer insights and analysis, said.

IDC also tracked a nearly 5% year-over-year increase in PC shipments, based on preliminary Q1 market analysis published last week. Even as vendors rolled out AI-enabled PCs, the market remained largely stagnant last year, growing by just 1% compared to 2023, according to IDC.

“Purchases have been pulled forward,” Minton said. “It’s clear that some businesses have been buying PCs a little bit earlier and vendor inventories have been stacking up.”

The largest U.S. supplier, HP, acknowledged the impact of Trump administration trade policy on its strategy during a February earnings call. 

“As part of the tariff response actions, we purposely produced additional inventory and also took advantage of strategic buy opportunities,” HP CFO Karen Parkhill said during the call.

Enterprises that held off on device upgrades last year may be in a tough spot as Microsoft prepares to sunset support for Windows 10 in October.

“Inventories can only be so big,” Minton said. “The cost of tariffs will have to be passed on to the buyers, probably in the next two or three months,” he said, noting that ASUS and Acer already raised unit prices in response to U.S. tariffs on products originating from China.