Dive Brief:
- Almost eight in 10 executives believe 2030 will be the year AI starts significantly contributing to enterprise revenue, more than double the number of executives — 40% — who say AI is currently boosting revenues, according to a study published Friday by the IBM Institute for Business Value.
- AI investment as a percentage of revenue will more than double over the next four years, but 68% of executives fear that integration issues will cause AI efforts to fail, according to the global study of 2,000 C-suite executives.
- Still, AI is anticipated to drive enterprise growth through 2030, the study found. “AI won’t just support businesses, it will define them,” Mohamad Ali, SVP of IBM Consulting, said in a press release.
Dive Insight:
AI’s return on investment remains a question mark for business executives who believe in the technology’s potential, yet struggle to predict when its full value will be realized.
While 2030 appears to be a promising year for AI’s contribution to revenues, only 24% of executives can clearly identify where that revenue will derive from, according to IBM.
Executive views on when new technology investments will pay off vary, with some anticipating only a 27% benefit realization in the next two years, according to a Rimini Street C-suite survey published last month.
Spending on AI is not slowing, despite ROI concerns. In 2026, global AI spend is anticipated to increase 44% year over year to $2.52 trillion, according to a Gartner report. In the enterprise, IBM found that 47% of executives’ AI spend is currently focused on driving productivity and efficiency gains, while 62% believe their AI spend will be dedicated to product and service innovation between 2026 and 2030.
The financial services industry has been heavily investing in AI, with big banks including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs betting on future efficiency gains.
“There’s going to be teething pain on this stuff,” Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said in the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call. However, the “technological advancement is real,” he added.
Indeed, executives are sold on the value of AI when it comes to bolstering productivity, according to IBM. Surveyed executives expect AI will boost productivity by 42% in the next four years. Two-thirds of leaders expect to realize most AI-driven productivity gains by 2030.
The technology will also redefine leadership roles within the enterprise by 2030, according to 74% of executives surveyed by IBM. CIOs in particular will face mounting pressure to produce ROI.
“We’ll need more problem solvers who understand both the business and the models — people who can marry technical capability with business insight,” Umang Dharmik, SVP and head of IT at Mercedes-Benz Research Development India, said in the IBM press release. “That’s the future of every company, including ours.”
