Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Wednesday that the latest impasse in trade talks between the U.S. and China poses new dangers to the economic outlook and makes the case for rate cuts even more urgent.
Speaking at the CNBC “Invest in America Forum” in Washington, D.C., the central bank policymaker noted the threat from China’s decision to restrict access to rare earths materials, which prompted a threat from President Donald Trump for 100% tariffs in Chinese imports.
Miran said that the dispute raises the level of uncertainty during a year when it already had been running high.
“I had been operating under the assumption that the uncertainty had dissipated, and therefore I felt more sanguine about some aspects of the growth outlook. Now, potentially, this is back because the Chinese are reneging on deals that were already made,” he told CNBC’s Sara Eisen. “So I think it’s incumbent on us as policymakers to think about the introduction of a new tail risk.”
From a policy perspective, Miran said the situation only convinces him more that the Fed needs to move aggressively on interest rate reductions.
During a tenure on the Fed that just began a month ago — and will end in January — Miran has advocated for another 1.25 percentage points in cuts on top of the quarter-point move the Federal Open Market Committee approved in September.
“To the extent that I think policy is quite restrictive right now, that sets us up to be vulnerable to shocks. If you hit the economy with a shock when policy is very restrictive, the economy will react differently than it would if policy was not as restrictive,” he said. “I think it’s even more important now than I did a week ago that we move quickly to a more neutral stance.”
The FOMC, of which Miran as a governor is a voter, next meets Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to approve another quarter-point reduction.
