Dive Brief:
- About 95% of AI-related productivity discussions on corporate earnings calls from 2000 through 2025 discuss future gains, according to a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- By comparison, about 75% of productivity conversations not involving AI were future-facing, the report said. As a result, study authors concluded that executives are largely optimistic about AI’s impact on productivity.
- However, the forward-looking impact of AI also suggests that while companies are “investing, experimenting and reorganizing around AI today,” the majority of the “measurable productivity effects remain mostly ahead,” per the report.
Dive Insight:
Since ChatGPT’s launch in November 2022, organizations have become increasingly enthusiastic about AI’s ability to raise productivity, report authors said. But an analysis of 490,000 earnings call transcripts from publicly traded U.S. firms over the course of several years revealed a more subdued forecast.
“Utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew only 0.07% over the four quarters ending with the first quarter of 2026,” the report said. It added that AI has reshaped the executive conversation around productivity, “even if its effects are not yet clearly visible in aggregate productivity data.”
The report found that the share of “productivity-related sentences that also mention AI” was almost zero before ChatGPT was released, but that percentage increased significantly in 2023 before leveling off in 2024. Then in 2025, it sped up again and comprised nearly 15% of productivity sentences by the end of last year.
“In other words, firms are talking somewhat more about productivity overall, but more strikingly, productivity discussions are increasingly being framed through the lens of AI,” the report said.
Report authors concluded that the prevalence of AI mentions on earnings calls are less about currently actualized productivity gains and more about “a corporate sector actively investing in, experimenting with and expecting future gains from AI.”
For employees actively involved in using the technology, the forecast is less confident.
The latest Protiviti AI Pulse Survey found that while 28% of C-suite level executives strongly agree that their companies’ job designs are AI-ready, just 13% of CHROs agreed.
The technology may actually be creating workplace problems, according to a recent joint survey by Express Employment Professionals and The Harris Poll. That poll found that although most hiring managers said they expect generative AI to improve efficiency, 62% also think AI automation could “diminish their company’s brand personality.” Furthermore, 90% of job seekers said they’re worried about AI’s negative impact on entry-level jobs.
Those concerns may be justified, according to a May study from learning platform D2L in partnership with Morning Consult. That report found that 30% of HR professionals said hiring strategies at their company involved bringing on fewer junior staffers and more mid-level workers. In addition, those HR leaders said AI was tasked with assignments that used to be given to entry-level employees.
