The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to keep benchmark interest rates on hold, opting to take a patient approach in its fight against inflation despite mounting evidence that price pressures are proving more nettlesome than policymakers had hoped.
In a widely expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the overnight funds rate in a range between 3.75%-4%, where it has been since the central bank approved a quarter percentage point increase in September.
“Inflation remains elevated,” the post-meeting statement said. “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Two voters dissented
Two of the 12 FOMC voters dissented from the decision – Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, both of whom wanted the committee to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.
Cook has been at the center of a continuing controversy in which President Donald Trump has tried to remove her from office over allegations concerning information she provided on home loan applications. While the Supreme Court stopped the president’s attempts, the administration has restarted the move, with a hearing scheduled for early November.
This was Cook’s first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022 as an appointee of President Joe Biden.
Dallas President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari both joined Hammack in voting no the last time the committee held, in July, and both have expressed the need for higher rates. However, they fell in with the majority Wednesday.
The midterm elections have lingered over the decision. Pivotal votes take place nationwide on Nov. 3, with control of Congress at stake. Fed officials consider political independence to be a cornerstone of the central bank, but some observers have speculated that officials won’t want to raise rates this close to an election.
Trump, who nominated Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to the position, has been at odds with the Fed for years. Trump has charged that the funds rate should be much lower.
The dissents reflected underlying conflict on the committee over how aggressively it needs to raise rates to combat rising prices. Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years, and the pace of price increases has only picked up since the September meeting.
Statements over the past several weeks, though, have reflected a desire to wait for additional data to come in before tightening policy further. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both said current economic conditions allow policymakers time to evaluate their next move.
The statement characterized economic activity as “expanding at a strong pace,” a seeming upgrade from “solid” in September. There were no other substantial changes to the statement other than the removal of a sentence that explained the September increase.
The decision came as little surprise as markets had been pricing in a less than 10% chance of a hike, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Following the decision, the S&P 500 held on to its gains.
However, it raises fresh questions about how long policymakers are willing to wait before tightening again. Futures market pricing indicates a strong possibility of another hike at the next FOMC meeting in December, and perhaps another increase or two in 2027.
Separately, Warsh unveiled at a news conference changes to the FOMC meetings next year that could reduce the number of rate-setting meetings each year.
“We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC, but in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated,” Warsh said. “The rest will be regular FOMC policy setting meetings, and I expect that in 2028 we’ll have two meetings dedicated discussions of strategy and six for setting policy.”
Complicated economic picture
The Fed is up against a complicated economic and political picture. Inflation as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge is expected to be above 3% for September, even when excluding volatile food and energy prices. Economists are concerned that inflation has broadened beyond the energy sector and the impact from the Iran war.
At the same time, the unemployment rate has remained low and economic growth has been strong. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is pointing to 3.4% annualized growth in the third quarter, which would be the strongest in a year. Consumer spending also has been solid, and investment tied to the artificial intelligence boom has helped keep the U.S. economic engine running.
The combination, though, has added to debate about how much restriction the Fed’s current interest rate is actually exerting on the economy, and whether policymakers will need to move more aggressively if the price data doesn’t improve.
While markets expect additional hikes, Warsh has avoided providing so-called forward guidance about the FOMC’s intentions. In June, his fellow committee members, through the “dot plot” grid, indicated the likelihood of another increase this year.
“The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach, and I think that makes sense given where we are in the cycle,” said Andrew Davis, head of investment strategy at Bryn Mawr Trust and a former BLS analyst. “The economy is slowing, but slowing and breaking are two different things. Holding rates steady gives policymakers more time to assess how the economy is responding to September’s hike and the recent rise in longer-term borrowing costs.”
